NBA 2009-2010 Predictions
All right, pre-seasons over, time to get down to business.
The Blazers are going to be special this year. Phenomenal. Picture last years 54-win team in your mind and make it significantly better in every aspect of the game (defense, rebounding, depth, athleticism, three-point shooting, game management, experience, ect.) and your image still might not be as good as the Blazers are going to be.
Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge are primed to take leaps forward that will land them both in serious all-star consideration. Brandon Roy will willingly cede some of his touches to his big men while cementing his status as a superstar. Together, the Big 3 will carry the team for the first of many seasons to come.
Andre Miller will start once McMillan feels it is beneficial for the team and Roy, which could be anywhere from three games into the season to the late stages of the season when McMillan begins to shorten the rotation. In any case, he will play more minutes than Steve Blake, be on the court at the end of games and help improve the team in many ways. His emphasis on feeding the big men will be invaluable, and his savvy and skills will be needed to match up with the top-tier point guards in the conference (Williams, Paul, Parker, Nash, Billups, ect.). While he may not be able to slow them down, he will at least make them play defense, which is something that Blake can’t do.
Rudy Fernandez will be better, probably significantly so. Blake and Joel Pryzbilla will be as solid as ever. Losing Nicolas Batum for half the season is a big blow, but if Martell Webster can rediscover his shooting stroke and be at least a capable defender than the Blazers shouldn’t miss a beat. Travis Outlaw will be inconsistent and often infuriating to watch, but when he is hitting his shots we will be practically unbeatable. Jerryd Bayless will remain confident and (hopefully) positive and periodically provide a shot in the arm. Juwon Howard has shown that he can still ball. On paper, the Blazers have as much talent and depth as any team in the league.
There are several other teams that come close, however, and they are much more experienced and battle-tested then the Blazers are. These teams, the Lakers, Celtics, Magic, Cavaliers, and Spurs, should all be as good or better than the Lakers were last year when they won the title. In all, it is shaping to be the most competitive, entertaining NBA season in years.
On the strength of an improved road record, the Blazers will win 59 games in the regular season. This will earn them the Northwest division crown, the 2nd seed in the West, and a challenging-but-not-too-tough first round matchup with the Hornets. After winning in 5 games, the Blazers will meet the Spurs in a showdown for a shot at the Lakers. The Spurs will be making a valiant last hurrah on Tim Duncan’s weary frame. But the Blazers will have home-court advantage, and they will win an epic 7-game series that will go down as the official passing of the guard from the Spurs to the Blazers and specifically from Duncan to Roy, who is Duncan’s new-age, team-oriented, underappreciated counterpart.
Beating the Lakers will be tough this year. The Blazers won’t have home court advantage; they’re just not quite a good enough road team yet to keep pace in the regular season. While they always play the Lakers well (at home, at least), the Lakers are the only team in the West that has a player who can match up with Roy, and, at least right now, a better frontcourt then the Blazers. Barring an injury to one of their frontcourt players (frontcourt depth is their biggest weakness; if Gasol, Bynum, Odom, or Artest gets hurt, they basically have no bench), I see the Blazers bowing out in 6 games.
That’s okay. We aren’t supposed to win it all this year. Our franchise center will be playing in his 2nd full season. Our two other franchise cornerstones are just beginning to enter their primes. We’re just getting started.
But we are ready to announce our arrival as a legitimate championship contender, and crazier things have happened. Only one thing is for certain: it’s going to be fun to watch.
Predictions
Western Conference top 4: Eastern Conference top 4:
Lakers: 64-18. Magic: 67-15.
Blazers: 59-23. Celtics: 65-17.
Spurs: 57-25. Cavaliers: 64-18.
Nuggets/Jazz: 54-28. (Atlanta? Who cares?)
Playoffs (2nd round on):
Lakers defeat Nuggets 4-1. Magic defeat whomever 4-1.
Blazers defeat Spurs 4-3. Celtics defeat Cavaliers 4-3.
Lakers defeat Blazers 4-2. Celtics defeat Magic 4-2.
Celtics defeat Lakers 4-3*.
(*: This is assuming that Kevin Garnett is healthy. I know this is a traditional copout, as part of predicting outcomes should be predicting whether a player will stay healthy or not. So I’m going with the Celtics and not making a backup prediction for if Garnett is hurt, because in that case I think the Lakers will repeat and I don’t want to predict that. Oops.)